EUR/CAD - 1.4066
EUR/CAD: Wave iv ends at 1.4349 and v of the wave of 3 should extend to the 1.3000
As the single currency has continued to move more high and ruined above prior to 1.3990 resistance, suggesting the rebound of 1.2778 is still in progress and gain shown upside target to 1.4100 is ongoing, howeverthat broad outlook is still working, upside should be limited to the 1.4200 and resistance to the 1.4349 must remain intact, bring another decline in the latter part of the second quarter.
Our last preferred count is that larger wave degree [C] 1.3289 as well as the wave of circle b ends at 1.7509 in December 2008 with (A): 1.6325, (B): 1.4719, 1.7509, circle where wave c followed by the wave (C) runs with the wave 1 ends at 1.5186 (diagonal wave 1), wave 2 to 1.6096, impulsive wave 3 is underway with the 1.5231 wave, wave ii: 1.6010 and long wave iii ended when the 1.2451. Wave iv ended either 1.4349 or can make an another leg c for 1.4349 rebound but believe 1.4600 would hold, make another retreat in wave c later. A daily closing below 1.3000 would bring 1.2778 waiting, pause it would indicate the wave iv ended the 1.4349 and extend the weakness of the 1.2600 but hollow 1.2451 wave iii would take on the first test.
Disadvantage, while the withdrawal at 1.3990/00 is likely, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.3900 and 1.3850/55 must organize, provide another place later to aforesaid upside targets. Only under 1.3660/65 would be top is perhaps formed signal and make another test of low this month to 1.3592, once this level is entered, this resurrect our previous downward view and confirm the top trainingand then of weakness to 1.3500, then towards 1.3390 support. In the future, under this level would add faith to the view that bounce of 1.2778 ended and wear the weakness to following 1.3263 later support.
Recommendation: Buy to 1.4100 with stopover under 1.3800 1.3900.
Note: No update on 29 April and next update on Monday, may 2.
On the overview, our long term in the monthly ranking is that a 2000 low of 1.2557 big sideways consolidation ended eventually in 1.7509 as the circle wave (b) with [A]: 1.6976 ((A): 1.4513, (B): 1.2612)(, (C): 1.6976), wave [B]: 1.3289 is a double three with 1 a-b-c: 1.5384, x: 1.6709 and 2nd a-b-c: 1.3289. As indicated earlier, the wave [C] ended in the 1.7509. The bond of now, there is the conduct which itself must be labelled as impulsive wave with wave 1: 1.5186 (diagonal wave 1), followed by the wave 2: 1.6096 and wave 3 is still in progress and may prolong the weakness at the bottom of the wave [B] 1.3289 and later support 1.2557 but believe 1.2000 would take.
